Ричард Линн
Сумерки человечества Обзор монографии Ричарда Линна «Дисгеника: Генетическое ухудшение современных человеческих популяций»

Сумерки человечества Обзор монографии Ричарда Линна «Дисгеника: Генетическое ухудшение современных человеческих популяций»Ричард ХостеОригинальное эссе было опубликовано 5 июня 2009 года на сайте HBD Books.Перевод Романа ФроловаКогда речь заходит о населении, то качество важнее количества. В то время как образованные жители Запада без устали напоминают друг другу о «перенаселении», дискуссия о качестве населения является табу. Давайте проясним этот вопрос с помощью умственного упражнения: предположим, вам предстоит провести остаток жизни в городе, населенном нигерийцами или японцами. В вашей власти выбрать, в какой пропорции эти две группы будут представлены в вашем городе. Кого вы выберете? Поскольку роль наследственности в характере и интеллекте уже твердо установлена, то насколько стабильны эти свойства в популяциях? Какие изменения происходят с ними со временем в современных обществах? Ухудшились ли эти качества и, если да, то насколько? Есть множество анекдотов об одиноких бездетных образованных женщинах и многодетных безработных необразованных женщинах, живущих на государственные пособия, но для разрешения столь серьезного вопроса нужны не анекдоты, а научные данные.Хотя поддержка евгеники в человеческих обществах присутствовала со времен Платона, первым, кто озаботился о генетическом ухудшении качества человеческих популяций, был французский врач Бенедикт Август Морель. В наше время он неизвестен большинству; гораздо более знаменитым является сэр Фрэнсис Гальтон, введший в обращение термин «евгеника» в 1883 году. Гальтон полагал, что в низшем социальном классе сконцентрировано больше генов, отвечающих за низкий интеллект и дурной характер, и что более высокая фертильность бедных слоев населения приведет к общему упадку генетического качества народа. Гальтон потратил всю свою жизнь, пытаясь исправить эту тенденцию. В конце концов, он убедил самого Дарвина в реальности этой опасности. Биолог Альфред Рассел Воллас писал так: «В одной из моих последних бесед с Дарвиным тот выразил сильную обеспокоенность будущим человечества, в связи с тем, что в современной цивилизации естественный отбор перестал действовать, и что наиболее приспособленные индивидуумы не имеют лучших (по сравнению с наименее приспособленными - прим. пер.) шансов выжить.»Но лишь в 1974 году нобелевский лауреат в физике Вильям Шокли назвал этот процесс «дисгеникой». Дарвин приходил в отчаяние от чрезмерного размножения «подонков», но нужны были данные, чтобы понять, насколько оправданы были его страхи. Ричард Линн собрал все доступные исследования и данные за последние 200 лет, относящиеся к связи между фертильностью и уровнем интеллекта/социо-экономическим статусом во всем мире. Насколько же напуганы мы должны быть? Естественный отбор в человеческих популяциях с исторической перспективыУсловия, в которых жили охотники-собиратели, способствовали улучшению генофонда, то есть были евгеническими. Обычно во главе племени стоял вождь, которому нужно было иметь определенный уровень интеллекта, чтобы взять и удерживать свою власть. У него был наилучший доступ к женщинам; другие мужчины, стоявшие достаточно высоко в социальной иерархии, обычно имели одну жену, и многие из наименее приспособленных вообще не имели возможности размножаться. Таким образом, мутации, отрицательно влияющие на здоровье, постепенно искоренялись из популяций. Ранние национальные государства были полигамными.С переходом людей Запада к цивилизации, отбор ослаб, но не исчез. Самые высокие социальные классы имели лучшее питание и, значит, лучшее здоровье, и их дети имели лучшие шансы дожить до взрослого возраста. Христианство нанесло удар Западному генофонду, введя институт целибата среди священников, который, по всей видимости, был более вредным, чем польза от запрета внебрачных связей. (Большинство тех, у кого есть внебрачные дети, и тогда, и сейчас имеют/имели относительно низкий интеллект и более слабый самоконтроль). Но в целом, можно сказать, что период между 1500 и 1800 годами был благоприятным для европейского генофонда. В Англии с 1620 по 1624 средний класс в среднем имел 4.4 ребенка на женщину по сравнению с 2.1 для рабочего класса. Эта разница частично объясняется различием в ожидаемой продолжительности жизни. В Берлине между 1710 и 1799 средняя продолжительность жизни для высшего класса составляла 29.8 лет по сравнению с 20.3 годами для низшего класса. Соответствующие числа для Женевы, Руана и Нойруппина в 18-м веке также показывают тенденцию высших социальных классов иметь больше детей. Это не значит, что все внезапно умирали в возрасте 20-30 лет, но что большее число детей в низших классах умирало в детстве до достижения ими того возраста, когда они могли заводить семью.Линн понимает, что для того, чтобы эти числа имели смысл, необходимо доказать, что в обществе того времени была достаточная социальная мобильность. Если каждый застревал в своем собственном классе, не имея никакой возможности подниматься или падать, то тогда разные классы были бы по-существу одинаковыми и нам не стоило бы беспокоиться о разнице в фертильности. Питрим Сорокин исследовал широкий диапазон человеческих обществ и обнаружил, что не было ни одного с отсутствующей социальной мобильностью. Наиболее закрытой является кастовая система в Индии, но даже там классы не абсолютно закрыты для посторонних. Экономист-историк С. Пэйлинг пришел к выводу, что европейские общества характеризовались значительной социальной мобильностью по крайней мере с четырнадцатого века. Торможение естественного отбора: здоровье и интеллектМутации спонтанно проявляются во всех популяциях. Поскольку подавляющее большинство из них является неблагоприятными, то одинаковая фертильность для всех слоев общества ведет к ухудшению генофонда. Поддержание качества населения требует не просто стабильного распределения индивидуумов по социальному континууму, но активного устранения неприспособленных. Результаты ослабления натуральной селекции в наше время очевидным образом проявляются в болезнях. Сегодня, почти 1% новорожденных детей имеют фенотипическую мутацию или известное генетическое заболевание. Из-за того, что носители плохих генов выживают и из-за появления новых мутаций, частота гемофилии, муковисцедоза, и фенилкетонурии по некоторым оценкам увеличивается соответственно на 26%, 120%, и 300% с каждым новым поколением. Гуманность требует спасать всех детей, которые могут быть спасены, но размножение носителей болезненных генов должно быть ограничено. Линн намекает, что лучшее генетическое сканирование и избирательные аборты могут скомпенсировать некоторые побочные эффекты современной медицины.Американский психолог Теодор Ленц был первым, кто разработал метод оценки связи между интеллектом и фертильностью. Он тестировал IQ детей и считал число их братьев и сестер. Предполагая равенство детей и родителей по IQ, дисгенические изменения будут происходить, если дети с низким IQ имеют больше сиблингов, чем дети с высоким IQ. В 1927 году Ленц пришел к выводу, что каждое последующее поколение теряет по 4 пункта IQ. Расчеты для Британии дали потерю примерно 2 пунктов в поколение. Эти исследования не принимали в расчет бездетных, но, поскольку бездетными непропорционально являются люди с высоким IQ, то эти исследования по-существу недооценивали дисгеничные тенденции в обществе. Анализируя многочисленные исследования и используя результаты исследований близнецов и приемных детей, демонстрирующие наследуемость IQ на 82%, Линн рассчитал генотипическое ухудшение в британском IQ между 1890 и 1980 годами, которое составило 5 пунктов. Для США, он рассчитал потерю 2.5 пунктов для белых и 6.2 пунктов для черных в течение трех поколений. Интересно, что женщины повсеместно демонстрируют больше дисгеничной фертильности, чем мужчины. Это происходит отчасти оттого, что, вероятно, мужчинам с низким IQ сложнее найти партнера, чем женщинам. Упадок Греции Греция является особенно интересным примером. Папавассилоу (1954) проанализировал IQ, социо-экономический статус и фертильность для мужчин и получил следующие результаты: Интеллект и фертильность в Греции, 1950-е годыСоцио-экономический статусКоличествоСредний IQКоличество детейСпециалист41117.21.78Квалифицированные рабочие80100.92.66Полуквалифицированные2791.04.00Неквалифицированные6782.25.56Мои расчеты дают IQ 96.9 для родительского поколения и падение в IQ на 4.9 пунктов. Полагая наследуемость IQ в 82%, получаем IQ поколения детей равным 92.9 (IQ родительского поколения минус 0.82*4.9). Линн обнаружил исследование, устанавливающее IQ Греции равным 95. Столь низкая (для Европы) величина IQ является весьма удивительной, учитывая исторические достижения этой страны. Впрочем, данные Папавассилоу помогают решить эту загадку. Опровергает ли эффект Флинна евгенику?В то время как наука продемонстрировала, что персональные качества, отвечающие за IQ и социо-экономический статус, передаются по наследству, оценки по IQ тестам в индустриальных странах возрастали в течение последних 100 лет. Как это может быть? Этот кажущийся парадокс был назван эффектом Флинна, по имени исследователя, обнаружившего увеличение среднего IQ в развитых странах примерно на 3-4 пункта каждые 10 лет в 20-м веке.Мы можем отбросить эффект лучшего знакомства с письменными тестами или лучшее образование, поскольку эффект Флинна обнаруживается у детей уже в возрасте 2 лет. Сомнительно, что он происходит из-за увеличения уровня информационной стимуляции, потому что исследования приемных детей показывают, что эффект факторов совместной внешней среды является пренебрежимо малым во взрослом возрасте: два биологически неродных человека, выросшие в одном и том же доме, похожи друг на друга не более, чем совершенные незнакомцы. Линн объясняет эффект Флинна улучшенным питанием. Это кажется оптимальным объяснением, поскольку за один и тот же промежуток времени длина тела и размеры мозга возросли на одно стандартное отклонение: то же самое произошло и с IQ.Значит, по мере того, как уменьшался генетический интеллект, который можно рассматривать как признак генетического качества организма, фенотипический интеллект, проявляющийся в оценках IQ тестов, увеличивался. Это увеличение не может происходить бесконечно и имеющиеся доказательства показывают, что в развитом мире, где даже самые бедные страдают от ожирения, эффект Флинна достиг своего потолка. Теперь нам следует ожидать уменьшения психометрического интеллекта в развитых странах, даже несмотря на иммиграцию людей с низким IQ из стран Третьего мира. О характереФрэнсис Гальтон и ранние евгеники были озабочены не только ухудшениями в интеллекте и здоровье, но и в том, что они называли характером: моральное чувство, чувство долга, и способность отсрочить вознаграждение и работать для достижения отдаленных во времени результатов и целей. Современные психологи называют это свойство совестливостью, которая, по рабочей оценке Линна, наследуется на 66%. Новость заключается в том, что дела с этим качеством обстоят еще хуже, чем с интеллектом.Оценивая преступников и психопатов и количество братьев и сестер у них в семьях, получаем ухудшение в «совестливости популяций» в два раза более значительное, чем уменьшение в интеллекте. И у этого есть печальные последствия в «реальном» мире:«Прямое предсказание заключается в том, что высокая фертильность среди преступников привела к увеличению в популяции числа генов, отвечающих за преступность, что проявится увеличением уровня преступности. Увеличение уровня преступности несомненно произошло в большинстве экономически-развитых стран во второй половине двадцатого века. В Соединенных Штатах уровень преступности фактически утроился между 1960 и 1990; в Британии он увеличился в четыре раза, и примерно на столько же преступность возросла во многих других странах.»Уровень незаконнорожденности демонстрирует такую же тенденцию. Состояние Западных популяций в моральном отношении хуже, чем оно когда-либо было и мы можем ожидать ускорения упадка в силу природы государства благосостояния. К несчастью, большинство социологов и политиков слишком глубоко погружены в «культурную» догму и не в состоянии решать эти проблемы. Есть ли надежда?Хотя прямых исследований связи между IQ и фертильностью в Третьем мире не проводилось, мы в состоянии оценить, каким образом социо-экономический статус и уровень образования, оба связанные с интеллектом, коррелируют с числом детей в семьях. Линн обозначил дисгеническим коэффициентом отношение уровня рождаемости низшего класса к высшему. Например, если люди из низшего класса имеют в среднем 3 ребенка на семью, а семьи высшего класса – 2, то дисгенический коэффициент равен 3/2 = 1.5. Коэффициент, превышающий единицу, означает дисгеничную фертильность, а коэффициент меньше единицы – евгеническую фертильность. В то время как дисгенический коэффициент выше 2 является высоким для Западных наций, коэффициенты для стран Третьего мира часто намного выше: 3.1 для Колумбии, 2.6 для Гватемалы, 2.7 для Мексики и 3.1 для Бразилии. Исключениями из этой глобальной тенденции являются Бангладеш (1.01), Фиджи (0.93) и Индонезия (0.86). Можно ожидать, что развивающийся мир останется «развивающимся» на неопределенно долгое время.Дисгеничная фертильность обнаруживается повсеместно, среди бедных и богатых рас. Не значит ли это, что надежды нет? Ответа на этот вопрос мы не узнаем до тех пор, пока мы наконец не признаем факт его существования и не попробуем справиться с проблемой. Коммунизм когда-то контролировал половину планеты и сегодня его эквивалентом являются глобализация и якобы триумфальная либеральная демократия. В то время как коммунисты могут заявлять, что истинный коммунизм «никогда не был испробован» и продолжать быть либералами, наследие нацизма отравляет евгеническое движение. Конечно, винить идеи, стоящие за евгеникой, за преступления нацистов является настолько же глупым, как обвинять идеологию государства благосостояния за советские трудовые лагеря. Так что нет рациональной причины почему евгеника не может занять сердца и умы политиков так же, как это было 100 лет назад. Хотя факты о дифференциальной фертильности могут привести в смятение наши феминизированные элиты, мы должны непрестанно напоминать им, что результатом бездействия станет конец цивилизации. В невежестве нет добродетели.


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Аватар пользователя adfe
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Аватар пользователя Anonymous
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Аватар пользователя Adeudju
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